Aug
18
2011

Fundamentals: Obama’s new package

There are some new developements taking place in Washington, just a heads up for all the Currency Traders …

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-17/obama-said-to-seek-spending-to-boost-economy-with-deficit-cuts-in-future.html

 

 

 

 

Aug
14
2011

CHF Weakness

While last week was a bit tough for the Trend Followers because of extreme volatility in market, the weakness in CHF was a winner in the end. Lets see if this weakness continues to develope on the Daily timeframe as well …

Aug
2
2011

USD Index (4h): 2nd August

Jul
3
2011

Currency Strength Dashboard: 2nd July

Currency Strength at the start of July 2011

Jul
1
2011

Trading with Currency Index

I’ve posted similar examples before as well but as I was getting a lot of questions from some friends and long term visitors of this blog, I thought I should post another example of how the Trades are taken on the basis of Currency Strength and Weakness.

In its simplest terms, you’re basically trading (trying to trade) the pairs where one of the Currencies is getting stronger while the other one getting weak. So instead of focusing on the Pair Chart you basically look for the movement of whole currency as such. As an example if Kiwi Dollar is the strongest while Euro is the weakest you might want to buy NZDEUR (offered by few brokers) or Short the EURNZD.

What Indicators you use (and whether you use Indicators or not) and what timeframe you use to determine the strength of currencies is purely based on your choice. The only important thing is that you will be focusing on the whole currency rather than just one pair. Another advantage of this strategy is that you will also be able to avoid trading the pairs where both currencies are either strong or weak.

Following is an example of hourly trade of CADCHF … Swiss Franc decided to head lower while Loonie had some other ideas on its mind, result is a long CADCHF trade …

Hope it helps …

Canadian Dollar Index Chart:

Swiss Franc Index Chart:

CADCHF Pair Chart:

Jun
7
2011

Currency Strength Dashboard: 7th June

Jun
3
2011

App for Retail Traders

Retail Traders are often considered an ignored market, all the good quality trading software and analysis software / applications are usually targeted at the higher end of market, that is the Big Boys …Bloomberg Terminal for example, costs 1500+ $ / month …

But suppose if you were given an Application to help you trade better in FX Market, what kinda features would you like to see in that application ? Or what kind of application (not a trading / chart software but rather a Terminal / Dashboard App) would help you to stay focused and get a snapshot of the whole market before you decide to enter into a trade ?

Feedback please …

May
24
2011

To Forum or not to Forum

Last year, I took on too much. So much that it became extremely difficult to manage everything, a lot of people got upset because they could not get what they were expecting. Then in the later part of the year I decided to cut back on stuff and keep only those things which I can handle successfully.

A part of that cut back also resulted getting rid of the Forex Forums. The same forums that helped me finding good friends, teachers and those you can rely on. The kind of stuff I learned on the forums was simple priceless but unfortunately it has a hidden cost attached to it too. IMHO, there are a few major problems with these forums:

1. Noise Factor: I’ve now realized that Trading is actually a Lone Wolf business, everyone has a different temperament, hence we trade with different objectives in our mind which eventually leads us to using different systems and timeframes. It can get quite confusing when you’re trading on Daily TF and when someone on the forum posts his / her 15min analysis showing Price Action working against you … it can be quite a challenge to stay on track and avoid this Noise factor

2: Time Consuming: Yupps, it does take time to contribute to the forums and quite often it becomes rather addictive where you’re waiting for new posts and then responding to all of them

3. Strong Opinion: Just like the Noise Factor, you’ll also be dealing a lot of people who will have extremely Strong Opinions. This again can get quite tricky to deal with them because some of them will have a really good convincing way of communication and they can influence your trading decisions. Recent Upside movement of EURUSD during the earlier part of this year was a prime example, a lot of people (who sounded like they have a solid professional experience and they will tell you things like Quantitative Trading Model or how they do not use / like any Indicators or things like they have a strong grip on Fundamentals etc) kept trying to Short EURUSD for several weeks, the reason was obviously quite simple … Strong Opinion. Some of them eventually decided to leave the forum as they couldnt handle the price action going against them for so long. They just couldnt believe that the Euro had any chance of appreciating given its Sovereign Debt problems but what they didnt take into account was that the Fundamentals were working against the Greenback

I am now away from the Forums which means more time for analysis and watching signs for Reversals. While this has definitely helped to trade better but there is an element of being lonely in the world of Trading … I believe at some point, we all have to take some hard decisions whether you can handle what Forums do for you or if you’re better off trading as a Lone Wolf …

 

May
23
2011

US Dollar Updates: 23rd May 2011

Still above cloud …

Previous Chart

May
23
2011

Kumo Cloud Zigzag Pattern

The Pattern just keeps repeating itself, it can appear on any timeframe and based on any settings …

May
23
2011

Currency Strength: 23rd May 2011

As of 23rd May 2011

Previous Chart posted on 12th May 2011

May
20
2011

Hikkae Patterns on USDCHF

There are some interesting Hikkake Patterns (False Breakout) on USDCHF and its a matter of wait and watch to see which one (Bullish or Bearish) gets triggered first. The Bullish Pattern from 9th May is already valid and active …

May
14
2011

EURUSD Updates

Daily is now on the Short side and next important level is 1.3916 …

May
12
2011

Currency Strength: 12th May 2011

As of 12th May 2011

Previous Chart showing Strengths / Weakness during March 2011

 

May
10
2011

US Dollar Updates

There is some change in sentiment for US Dollar and we’ve just had a Cloud breakout on Daily chart of USDDKK … lets see how far this goes …

May
6
2011

Fundamentals: What happens after QE2

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/us-monetary-policy-and-china-key-factors-as-commodities-lose-silver-lining/story-e6frg90x-1226050937391

May
6
2011

Suncorp Group on ASX

I’ve had a buy order above the Cloud for my superannuation account as I was quite hopeful of a Bullish run to come for Suncorp Group (listed on ASX) but it looks like it isnt going anywhere but down …

Just cancelled the Buy Order …

May
6
2011

EURUSD EW Count

Just another possible EW Count …

May
1
2011

USD Index Updates

USD Index Updates as of the start of May 2011 …

For previous chart of 23rd Feb, please click here

May
1
2011

USDCHF Weekly Chart Updates

The Hikkake Pattern (often known as False Breakout) we were looking at back in March was not only validated but the Entry got triggered as well …

For Previous Chart please click here